Mumbai : Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for April 6-8, 2026, a report by SBI Research suggests that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain a 'status quo' on policy rates. The report, titled "Mercury Rising," highlights that the decision comes against a challenging global backdrop, primarily driven by conflict in West Asia and the resulting disruptions in the global oil market, which are being compared to the 1973 crisis.
According to the study, India is facing significant pressure from "imported inflation" as crude oil prices remain stubbornly above $100 per barrel and the Rupee hovers around the 93 per dollar mark. Additionally, projections of a 'Super El Niño' pose further risks to domestic inflation. While the RBI has recently introduced measures to curb speculation in both onshore and offshore NDF markets to support the currency, SBI Research anticipates a cautious approach in the upcoming policy communication. The report concludes that while macro-fundamentals remain hygienic, the central bank will focus on balancing growth with the need to contain volatile inflationary pressures in these uncertain times.