MUMBAI : State Bank of India (SBI) Research, in its latest Ecowrap report (Issue No. 23, FY27), has strongly countered the recent controversy surrounding India's first-quarter GDP growth numbers, calling the attempts to compare GDP data across two entirely different base series as "unsolicited, fallacious, and an 'on purpose' sign of intellectual sclerosis."
According to the report authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI, the National Statistical Office (NSO) reported robust Q1 FY27 economic growth of 7.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) at constant prices and 10.3% y-o-y at current prices. However, an unwarranted controversy emerged when certain estimates calculated nominal growth at just 2.6% by incorrectly comparing the new Q1 FY27 nominal GDP figure (₹88.3 lakh crore, 2022-23 base) against the unrevised Q1 FY26 figure (₹86.1 lakh crore, 2011-12 base). SBI Research clarified that comparing data across two distinct series with different base years is fundamentally flawed.
The report explains that if a like-for-like comparison is made using the new base series (2022-23) for both periods, the Q1 FY26 nominal GDP stands revised to ₹80.4 lakh crore (or ₹80.0 lakh crore in the latest August 31 release). Comparing Q1 FY27 (₹88.3 lakh crore) against the revised base series yields a nominal growth of 9.7%. Even under a hypothetical deflator adjustment, the real GDP growth would still stand at a strong 7.4%, which remains highly commendable amidst global economic headwinds.
SBI Research emphasized that revisions are an inherent "part and parcel" of GDP estimation. The process involves multiple iterations, and the final Q1 FY27 numbers released in August 2026 will only be finalized by February 2029 after a 30-month tracking period. This year, the NSO incorporated revised numbers for past quarters alongside base year revisions to maintain consistency with updated price and production indices like CPI, IIP, WPI, and PPI. The report also debunked the misconception that base revisions automatically inflate GDP size, noting that the base update in this instance actually reduced the nominal GDP figure.
