Mumbai : Following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, SBI Research in its ‘Ecowrap’ report has termed the Governor’s undertone as the "most cautious and conscious" in recent times. The MPC unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a ‘neutral’ stance, reflecting a "wait and watch" approach amidst global geo-economic flux.
The report highlights that while a rate hike is not imminent, the RBI’s communication reflects deep concern over the evolving conflict in West Asia and its impact on commodity prices. Using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to analyze the Governor's statement, SBI Research found the tone to be the most hawkish among the current Governor’s last eight statements. This caution stems from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and increased the risk of imported inflation.
For the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), the RBI has projected real GDP growth at 6.9% and average inflation at 4.6%. The report notes that while domestic macro-fundamentals remain resilient, volatile crude prices and the possibility of 'Super El Niño' conditions remain significant risks. Furthermore, the RBI is closely monitoring the non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets to curb currency speculation and maintain the Rupee's stability, which is currently hovering around the 93 per dollar mark.